TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 4

EGAY CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST NORTHWESTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH

Location of Center (4:00 AM)

The center of Tropical Depression EGAY was estimated based on all available data at 815 km East of Southeastern Luzon (14.4°N, 131.7°E)

Intensity

Maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 70 km/h, and central pressure of 1004 hPa

Present Movement

West northwestward at 10 km/h

Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds

Strong winds extend outwards up to 290 km from the center

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT

No Wind Signals hoisted at this time.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS

Heavy Rainfall Outlook

Forecast accumulated rainfall on Monday

• 50-100 mm: Catanduanes

In addition, EGAY may also enhance the Southwest Monsoon during the weekend and into next week:

• Tomorrow: Occasional rains possible over Western Visayas

• Monday: Occasional rains likely over Western Visayas, Occidental Mindoro, and the northern portion of Palawan including Calamian Islands.

A Weather Advisory may be issued for these areas in anticipation of the potential heavy rainfall.

Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are possible, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.

Severe Winds

In anticipation of the arrival of strong breeze to near-gale conditions associated with EGAY, Wind Signals may be hoisted within the day or tomorrow in some areas in Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas.

The enhanced Southwest Monsoon may bring gusty conditions over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds:

• Today: The western and southern portions of Visayas, the northern portions of Northern Mindanao and Caraga, Romblon, and Masbate

• Tomorrow: Most of Visayas and MIMAROPA and the northern portions of Northern Mindanao and Caraga.

• Monday: MIMAROPA, most of Visayas, the northern portions of Northern Mindanao and Caraga, and portions of Zamboanga Peninsula.

HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS

On Sunday, EGAY may bring moderate to rough seas (2.0 to 3.0 m) over the eastern seaboards of Southern Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. If inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels, avoid navigating in these conditions.

TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK

• EGAY is forecast to track generally west northwestward or westward today and tomorrow before turning northwestward for the remainder of the forecast period. The current forecast track indicates that EGAY will remain offshore over the Philippine Sea. However, the forecast confidence cone indicates that a landfall scenario over the northern portion of Northern Luzon is not ruled out at this time. Analysis of available meteorological data indicates that considerable shifts in its track forecast remain possible in succeeding bulletins.

• EGAY is forecast to intensify into a tropical storm within the day. Through the forecast period, this tropical cyclone will continue to steadily intensify. It may reach peak at super typhoon category on Tuesday or Wednesday while over the Philippine Sea east of Extreme Northern Luzon.

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 AM today.

DOST-PAGASA